Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook : Inland Lakes & Rivers
Weather Forecast: A series of storm systems is forecasted to move through the Quinte watershed Friday evening and into Monday morning. Due to the degree of uncertainty of where the storm system will track, the current forecast anticipates 20mm - 40mm of mostly freezing rain with a possibility of rain and snow.
The temperature is expected to hover around the freezing mark for the bulk of the precipitation event. Temperatures are expected to rise again on Sunday afternoon and into Monday with highs exceeding 10 degrees Celsius early in the week.
Watershed Conditions: Watercourses and lakes have peaked from the initial spring snowmelt and remain elevated. This event was well-below the average seasonal spring peak for the region. Approximately 45mm of water is stored in the snow located in the most northern areas of the watershed. Rainfall and warm temperatures will cause remaining snow to melt. Most of the snowpack along Hwy 7 and south, has already melted. Watershed soil remains saturated with reduced ability to absorb rainfall.
It is anticipated that watercourses and inland lakes will rise in response to the weekend precipitation early next week. The rate at which water levels are expected to rise will be faster than the previous peak due to wet ground conditions and existing high flows.
Overall, the watershed will respond faster if the precipitation is strictly rain, rather than freezing rain or snow. If it is strictly rain, water levels will reach bankfull conditions by the middle of next week. Additionally, more rainfall has been forecasted for next Thursday and Friday which could cause levels to increase beyond the initial response. Due to the high level of uncertainty with the long-term weather prediction, flood forecasting staff will closely monitor the situation and will update flood messaging if conditions warrant.
Risks: Localized flooding is possible in flood-prone and low-lying areas. All ice-covered water should be considered unsafe.
Actions: Residents in flood prone or low-lying areas should closely watch water levels and take necessary precautions to protect their property. Ensure sump pumps are in good working condition and that there is access to a portable backup generator and pump. Reduce ponding by keeping ditches, culverts, and storm drains clear from obstructions.
A FLOOD OUTLOOK STATEMENT gives early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snowmelt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
This message will be in effect until (or updated before) April 11, 2025
Additional Information: For current water levels or to report changes in water levels, residents are encouraged to visit QuinteConservation.ca.
For more information:
Christine Phillibert
Manager Water Resources
613-968-3434 ext. 130
cphillibert@quinteconservation.ca
AREAS AFFECTED
- Moira River Watershed
- Napanee River Watershed
- Salmon River Watershed
- Prince Edward Watershed
EXPLANATION OF FLOOD HAZARD LEVELS
At any time of the year, when there is flooding or potential for flooding, Quinte Conservation will issue up to three levels of messages:
A WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT is a general notice of potential flooding or other conditions that pose a safety risk. There are two kinds of statements:
· A WATER SAFETY STATEMENT indicates that high flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for users such as anglers, boaters, swimmers, children, or pets. Flooding is not expected.
· A FLOOD OUTLOOK STATEMENT gives early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
A SHORELINE CONDITIONS STATEMENT gives a flood outlook (an early notice of the potential for flooding on the Great Lakes based on weather and lake conditions) and water safety information.
A FLOOD WATCH notifies that the potential for flooding exists within specific watercourses and municipalities. Municipalities, emergency services and individual landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.
A FLOOD WARNING indicates that flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities and individuals should take action to deal with flood conditions. This may include road closures and evacuations.